Archive for the ‘阅读’ Category
在路上
这回在哥本哈根现代艺术馆还看了一个印象非常深刻的摄影展：“Jacob Holdt眼中的美国”。
在现场每一张每一张观看这些真实反映美国70年代社会现状的照片，我的感觉除了震撼还是震撼。这是wiki上对Jacob Holdt的介绍，他的人生经历可谓惊心动魄，一切的缘起是1970年代他装着40块美元就踏上美国大地的旅行。大家自己看吧，我就不转译了：
Jacob Holdt (born 1947 in Copenhagen, Denmark) is a Danish photographer, writer and lecturer.
Passing through the United States in the 1970s with $40 in his pocket, Jacob Holdt was shocked and fascinated by the social differences he encountered. He ended up staying in the USA more than five years, criss-crossing the country by hitchhiking more than 150,000 miles and recording his impressions on film.
He sold blood plasma twice a week to buy film. He stayed in more than 400 homes – from the poorest migrant workers to America’s wealthiest families (for instance, the Rockefellers) – recording these encounters over 3000 photographs taken with a cheap camera. His work captures the daily struggle of the American underclass and contrasts it with images of the life of America’s elite. Upon returning to Denmark in 1977, Holdt began lecturing on social differences in the United States and published a book: American Pictures ISBN 87-981702-0-1, which is available on Holdt’s website. He later presented his slideshow at over 300 college campuses across the United States.[2] [3]
American Pictures had a profound impact on the youth in Scandinavia and Germany, and the Communist bloc saw a chance to use his work against President Carter’s human rights campaign. Holdt was approached by the KGB a few months after his slideshow became a success and he saw a chance with the help of the Soviet Union to penetrate the Marxist bureaucracy in Angola. Here it was his intention to spend the money earned from American Pictures in building a hospital in support of the anti-apartheid struggle.
However, when his book was published in 1977 the KGB revealed to him that it was their intention to use it in an all-out campaign against Carter to try to demonstrate that human rights were just as bad off in America as in Russia. Only a month after its publication Holdt therefore hired his lawyer, Søren B. Henriksen, to stop his own book all over the world. Except for Germany, Holland and Scandinavia, where they already had contracts with his Danish publisher, he managed to stop it, and did not release it again until the end of Communism.
As a result of losing most of his expected income from the book, Holdt could not finance a hospital, but only a nursing school built for the Namibian resistance group SWAPO in Kwanzu Zul in Angola with matching funds from the European Union. After the liberation of Zimbabwe in 1982 he also supported projects there. At the end of the cold war he was briefly accused of having been a KGB-agent, but it was easy for his publisher, Dagbladet Information, to show that he had actually worked for the other side and had even flown President Carter’s human rights envoy over to approve his film manuscript intended for the American market.
Since 1991, Holdt has worked as a volunteer for CARE in several third-world countries. He has continued to document the lives of those in poverty while working for CARE.
His most recent projects have also focused on white supremacist hate groups. Holdt spent time living with leaders of the Ku Klux Klan and photographing their daily lives. Holdt is sympathetic with the people he encountered in these groups, pointing out that most grew up under marginal circumstances and often were victims of child abuse. Holdt emphasizes the similarities in background between white supremacists and poor minorities.
Holdt’s ability to capture representations of the “filthy rich” and poverty in America resulted in him being nominated as one of the four shortlisted photographers for the Deutsche Börse Photography Prize 2008. At the exhibition at The Photographer’s Gallery in London Holdt presented his photographs for the prize in an effective and mesmerizing slideshow – each image beamed onto a plain white wall in a darkened room, immersing the audience in the dark and dreary world of poverty and maximizing the impact.
Holdt lost out on the prize to the photographer Esko Männikkö from Finland.
From 02.10.2009 until 07.02.2010 Holdt’s pictures were exhibited in Louisiana Museum of Modern Art.
前一阵子，写麦田里的守望者的塞林格去世了。这本小说我只粗粗翻过，没认真看过，但其中的精神内核我想我是能够体会的。虽然我的个性决定了自己会走一条遵守社会规则，承担世俗责任的道路，但对于这些常人口中的离经叛道者，我特别理解和支持（但不羡慕）。也许只有在丹麦这样民主自由风气盛行的国度，才有可能产生出很多象Jacob这样用自己的整个人生去行走的人。他把自己的生活交织到了他的旅行和他的观察中，和所有拍摄对象都是零距离接触。因此那些简陋的照片才会如此震撼。他用自己活生生的血肉之躯去碰撞过了，用自己全部的时间去度过过了。这种投入生命的方式是那些所谓的世俗成功没有办法比拟的。
其实人活在这个世界上，最幸福的就是做自己, 找到自己的热情所在。这样子的话，无论你选择去行走或者安居，选择面对外部世界或转向内省，你的内心都将是充盈丰满而坚定快乐的。
和神经科学家在一起
周五有一个和行为神经科学研究所的科学家们一起召开的研讨会，我们unit14有6个被邀的名额，因为我的project关于空间意识问题，所以也将参加。刚刚在网上查资料，看要过来的科学家们和我们这边人的发言主题，看的挺兴奋：
Peg 主要会讲康德和博格森的时空哲学：包括康德著作中如何通过书写对时空的“感觉-思考”，来讨论建筑和神经科学对空间和几何思考的建构；还包括博格森对物质和记忆的拓扑性的讨论。
John O’Keefe 会讲空间的神经哲学化概念及其在大脑中的表述：在哲学范畴里,一直存在两种对空间认识的不同观点:经验主义哲学家认为，人对空间的认识建立在感觉和行为的相互关联上,但康德一派却认为人对空间概念的认识是内向性的，后天对外部世界的认识是建立在先天已有的基本形态上的。而现在神经科学已经为这两种说法都找到了证据。
Niall McLaughlin 会讲他们专为老年痴呆病人设计的看护中心。其中包括他们对这些病人对空间体验的调查。
Kate Jeffery 讲大脑不同区域神经元对记忆和空间意识的影响。特别关注垂直空间和水平空间认识是否有区别的问题。
Ruth Conroy Dalton 空间句法。
Hugo Spiers 我们如何在大型城市中以空间特征为自己导航。对伦敦出租车司机的思考图示和行为研究。
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很喜欢14这一组，因为这组确实真适合我，可以接触很多科学素材，与其他院系又有很多互动。特别刺激好玩！
贴一些上月在哥本哈根workshop的照片吧。这个一周完成的装置原型并不是太成功，不过帮我熟悉了一遍感应器和arduino的关系。基本原理是：通过感应人在探测装置下移动的情况，送风管会转向，从而影响每个探测体两翼的平衡；而每个探测体又与其相邻其他探测体相互作用。在最完美的状态下，只要有人在装置下走动，整个matrix就应该保持永动（不过最后没实现，因为coding始终有问题）。
坐在外面干活的我们
集体照，没一张清楚的，靠
觅句欣有得、此生未全贫
我们的大脑更爱三角形
推荐一个博客
我这原计划写论文的夜晚从2点开始就被一个女孩子的博客收缴了。
推荐：鹌鹑的窝
粗略地翻了一遍，挺喜欢！这个女孩子好爽，没有一点唧唧歪歪，写的都是饱览世界奇闻异景的见闻感受。从前后行文里知道这是个在顶级矿业公司做管理层的姑娘，04年前后移民到加拿大去了。正是这份薪酬稳定优渥的职业保证了她多年来独自一人马不停蹄地在世界各处行走。边走边写。
这算是我看过的最好的华文非职业旅行写作者，女孩。一般旅行作者都是职业记者或者自由撰稿人，很少象她这样还能保持一个固定职业的例子。想想都知道有多累，让我很佩服！
大概因着我自己的职业和理想，我和她是走在完全不同道路上的人。不过知道这世界上有这样的人存在，我内心也很受鼓舞！
Unstable equilibrium in 2010(Quote from Robert Peston’s blog)
小妍和静中去河边看一年一度的新年焰火了，这让我想起05-06年的元旦前夜，那是我唯一一次到河边看从伦敦眼上释放出的焰火。当时整个河边响彻massive attack的tear drops，天下着小雨，细密的雨丝似乎都被节奏强劲又诡异的音乐震的轻颤起来。焰火结束以后一切公交都停运，巨大的人流在街上缓缓地移动，我懵懵懂懂地被裹在人流里，心里填满了那种热闹散去之后的空旷和寂寞。今天我没去，留在家里写博客。心里有话必须要写在日记里，7号就要出发去哥本哈根，恐怕也没旁的时间了。
今早看到Peston的这篇新博，又忍不住一阵感慨，想起几天前在曼城的时候，我还在跟小虾说：“你说要怎样才能拯救这个衰败的国家？！”（我知道看官们看到这句肯定会笑——我真是吃饱了撑的忧国忧民，居然忧的还是英国，赫赫）小虾斩钉截铁地说：“没法儿拯救，就等着咱们伟大祖国来把它殖民了吧！”（哈哈哈哈）作为一个旁观者，从2005年来到英国到如今的2010年，我也算是亲身见证历史了吧，Peston在文中提到的这四年：兴旺的’06–过热的’07–危机的’08–破裂的’09，我和我的朋友们都实实在在身有体会，07年劳动力市场的供不应求和09年秋风扫落叶般的失业浪潮我们都经历过了。作为一个外国人，在这些社会巨震中就显得更加脆弱更易受冲击，不过就象我老爸说的：30岁前经历，30岁后参与。所以我倒也练出来了，不在乎年轻的时候受这点惊吓。反倒自得其乐津津有味地看起了眼前这个国家和所谓的western world的兴衰变化，别说，还真挺精彩的，象逐渐摊开并清晰起来的一幅图画。
Unstable equilibrium in 2010
Robert Peston | 19:26 UK time, Wednesday, 30 December 2009 Comments (105)
Prognosticating about the ensuing 12 months was like shooting fish in a barrel over the past few years.
The big facts about the noughties were first that there was too much cheap money sloshing about, and then – inevitably – that there was too little.
So my predictions for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 were “boom, overheating, crunch and bust”, respectively.
Wobbly me
But for the first Hogmanay in ages, I have little confidence in what the coming year will bring for business, for savers, for investors and for borrowers.
Why am I so wobbly? Well, it is because of the manner by which we avoided a depression in the UK, the US and much of Europe.
With banks, non-financial businesses and households all de-leveraging, all trying to reduce their huge and unsustainable debts, a massive economic heart attack was avoided by a reduction in official interest rates to almost zero, to ease the squeeze on the private sector, and by increases in public spending.
Or to put it another way, any fall in private-sector indebtedness has been offset by a rise in public-sector indebtedness.
Which means that viewed across all economic sectors, the UK and the US are still submerged in debt: the aggregate borrowing of households, companies and government is equivalent to more than three times the value of everything we produce, still greater than at any point in peacetime history.
Patient creditors?
If you add to that the liabilities of banks that should be viewed as unsustainable because they are provided or guaranteed by the state, then the indebtedness of much of the West can be seen as greater still.
So the big intolerably uncertain question for Britain and America (and for Greece, Ireland and others) is can we reduce our debts in an orderly way – one which would be gruelling for us, as we save more and consume less, but not unbearable?
Or will our creditors lose patience and demand their money back – in which case we would have to pay massively more for credit while draconian cuts in government and household spending would be forced on us?
To put it more succinctly, we are balanced precariously.
The most likely tilt on the axis takes us to an indeterminate period of low growth, which won’t be painless – because our standard of living and public services would stagnate and unemployment would continue to rise.
But we cannot discount a violent tilt in an altogether more unpleasant direction, where sterling would plummet and the cost of borrowing for government and for us would soar.
What’s worse, our fate is not wholly in our control.
We could be a domino knocked over in a chain reaction started by the default of another too-indebted nation.
Or we could be victimised by investors if the current recovery in property and share prices came to a sticky end, since that would lead to further losses for our still rickety banks.
Or inflation could rise faster than the Bank of England expects, which would force it to put up the official interest rate in a manner that dangerously sucked out all that additional cash given by it and the Treasury to consumers over the past year.
Or we could become a pariah for investors if the resolve of the next British government to reduce public-sector borrowing was doubtful.
To put it another way, we’re probably in for a period of low growth and slow steady recovery – but a further shock cannot be wholly discounted.
What price shares and gold?
There are also huge uncertainties about the outlook for assorted financial markets.
Take share prices. Even after rising 50% from their lows of early 2009, they don’t look particularly expensive on the basis of historical averages for the relationship between prices and earnings or between prices and assets.
But those historical averages may well have been massively distorted by the share-price inflation of the dot.com bubble of the late 1990s and the cheap-money bubble of the mid-noughties.
So if those speculative bubbles are viewed as aberrations, shares may be expensive.
Or take gold.
If we are in for a period of slow steady recovery, in which interest rates rise, gold is greatly over-valued.
But if the dollar and sterling were to plunge – well, gold would glisten even more than it has.
Two ‘certainties’
Is there no forecast that can be made with confidence?
I suppose there are just two about which I feel a bit more certain.
The first is that the Chinese currency must surely rise. China’s authorities will surely be unable to keep the cork in the bottle, when their economy looks so much stronger than the US’s.
Second, even without a sterling crisis, the interest rates paid by the British government must surely increase and the price of gilts (of all maturities) must surely fall.
Gilt prices have been boosted by investors’ curious conviction that lending to governments like ours was safer than lending to banks or to the private sector.
But now that the penny has gradually dropped that the banks and public sector are more or less indistinguishable, it has gradually become a tiny bit cheaper and easier for banks to borrow and it will probably become harder and more expensive for governments to borrow.
Update 1145: A number of you spotted a typo which I have now corrected. I wrote that the “price of gilts… must rise”, when I meant to say that they must “fall”. Sorry for the confusion.
为什么房价居高不下
妈妈来电话说：“现在北京的房价简直涨疯了。买房子好像买白菜一样。虽说一直嚷着信贷紧缩，但房价仍然只升不降。四环以内已经没有每平方低于2万的房子了！”
我听了觉得很恐怖，因为这说明房地产的泡沫越来越大了。如果按照去年这个时候经济学权威机构的预测，正常的话，今年的房市应该回落，房价下降才对。看这段：
“第四、居民房产以及金融资产价格在2008年的巨幅缩水将在2009年产生强烈的财富效应，使消费下降。计量研究表明，中国自2002年以来，财富效应逐渐出现，虽然其系数较小，在2005-2008年期间，居民财富每减少10%，对消费支出的影响是2%。2008-2009年，中国股票市场的缩水程度达到60%以上，股票市值减少13万亿，与此同时房地产价值预计缩水15%左右，使居民总财富缩水在12-18%区间。这将意味着消费将由此减少2.4-3.6%的支出。
2009年，中国的房地产行业的大幅度调整将全面爆发，2008年房地产市场的需求下滑和供给放量必然导致2009年房地产市场进行市场结构、投资规模以及成交价格得多重深度调整，该调整将进一步推动制造业投资增速的深度下跌，将使中国固定投资规模出现超预期的下降。
这一年，房地产面临“硬着陆”的风险也将加大。从资金面看，房地产资金的逆转将使房地产市场面临严重的流动性约束和资金链断裂的风险。从而加速房产价格和营销模式的改变。从2007年12月开始，中国房地产市场由于开工面积扩大、土地储备大幅度增加以及开发成本激增等原因，应付款累计增速就开始提升了，而在2008年2月由于企业盈利增速放缓、银行信贷紧缩以及民间拆借成本上涨等因素资金来源增速开始下滑，到2008年3月，资金来源累计增速低于应付款累计增速，资金面开始恶化，并且这种状况持续扩张，资金来源累计增速与应付款累计增速之间的缺口越来越大。
房地产价格与房地产资金来源之间的动态变化的关系证明，房价提升将使资金来源越多，而房价下降将使资金来源紧缩，一旦中国房市价格下降的趋势形成，超过一定的临界点，那么资金来源将加速下滑。如果没有外部力量进行干预，到2009年初资金来源累计增速与应付款累计增速之间的缺口加速扩大必将使大部分房地产企业资金链断裂。这种资金链的断裂就意味着中国房地产的“硬着陆”，意味着中国固定投资的21%将消失，25%的全社会贷款将成为不良贷款，1.4万亿左右的地方预算外财政收入将消失。虽然这种极端的景象不会发生，但是房地产将在2009年出现严重的资金短缺的问题是必然，而这势必会引起房地产投资能力的大幅度下降。”
但是现在市场表现却正好相反，至少在北京这样的一级城市里。房价疯长只能说明一件事，那就是资金来源和应付款之间的缺口确实已经越来越大，为了弥补这个缺口，本已元气不足的地产商才要继续拼命扛住房价上扬，以此来缓解资金链上的险情。而房子，大多被富裕的投资者买走，真正需要住房的老百姓只能望房兴叹。
中国撼动世界——饥饿国度的崛起-01
中国撼动世界——饥饿国度的崛起，作者James Kynge是伦敦金融时报98-05年驻中国记者站的主管，他第一次到中国是1982年以交换学生身份去山东大学学汉语，85年从爱丁堡大学东方语言部毕业后一直从事和中国相关的工作。
这个周末我一口气把这本购于2006年11月8号的书又读了一遍，其实我这几年就一直在做着这样重复阅读的傻事，因为第一遍碍于语言往往是囫囵吞枣，后来的阅读才真正品出滋味。
其实这篇文章酝酿了很久，一来是因为月初的谢菲尔德行我自己感觉还没有完全说尽，二来，要说尽想说的必须得再多读一些参考资料。所以我只能压缩睡眠时间，看了一百多页的谢菲尔德08总体规划报告和这本旧书。昨天夜里读完这本书结尾的第九章，我失眠了，怎么也睡不着，因为心里实在太激动也太感慨了。本想索性不睡了，爬起来把这篇日记写掉，但今早是很重要的学术大论文定方向的会，得用脑子，不能怠慢，所以我还是强压着一肚子感慨睡了，做了一夜考高数的梦，解微积分。早晨醒来觉得比不睡还累，哈哈。
刚刚又想写，不过还是把自己的表达欲强压下了，画了一晚上图，好几个关键的几何都解决了，我的兴奋点又上来了，看看表已经是这个时候了，估计我一高兴，说不定一口气就把明天要上CNC的模型整出来了。 算了，我也不跟自己较劲了，最近不可能有时间写这本书和未尽的谢菲尔德了，大家能找到这本书的找来看看吧。国内没有译本，但台湾出了繁体版，网上就有卖的。
真是好书！
奥巴马在上海的“Town Hall”
(这张图片总让我有种梦幻感，觉得不像真的，怎么可能呢？我们中国人也有这种在议事厅里和最高权力代表公开无阻平等对谈的时刻？！这标志着一个充满希望的时代的开始！）
请大家点击上面超连接，到白宫网站观看约为一小时的座谈会全程视频。
这个历史性的事件，据说国内都没有直播，而有些比较敏感的问题也在媒体报道中被删节了。坦率地说，我听不出有什么特别过分的地方，奥巴马的回答都是很礼貌也很实在的，并没有直接批评中国，只是尽可能地阐述美国在相同问题上的理念和做法。这个与中国青年的互动，让我更觉得诚如年初那个BBC节目所讲，这是一位“教授总统”，他的智识、头脑、口才、说服力、沟通能力、亲和力实在太出众了。
不过上海提问的学生还是有点嫩，问题也没问到贸易保护这种关键点上（又或者是有要求不让问？！），关于气候变化和新能源开发合作也没问得很深，英语也不是很好。但是这也是实际国情，能理解。
我持续看美国著名智库布鲁金斯（brookings）的网站大约快两年了，它作为一个智库和媒体的性质又不一样，往往有对美国内政外交、国际关系、经济形势的更加深入的研究和探讨。大概10天前，就请美国家安全顾问东亚问题专家Jeffrey Bader做了一次关于如何理解本次亚洲行的问答会。象brookings这样的智库，现在中国也有了，就是CCIEE(中国国际经济交流中心—国经中心）。要提高中国在国际社会的影响力和话语权，就需要有这样联接官方高层与民间智识的智库组织。
爱恨是单纯的爱恨，世界是复杂的世界-9
好久不用这个标题写日记了，但今天的还是应该归于这个系列之下。今天是11月9号，柏林墙倒塌20周年纪念日。
昨天看了刘瑜为此写的一篇专栏文章《当他们开始用脚投票》。刚好早晨起来看新闻，我们学校德语系的德国历史教授Mary Fulbrook也在对柏林墙的倒塌这一历史事件做回顾，但她的兴趣点却和刘瑜不同，她关注的是德国统一之后的这20年两种制度融合进程中的种种真实而令人深思的现象。她给大家解释了为什么原东德人现在对统一前的生活分外怀念。对比之下，这两位对同一历史事件的解读象是前后相继的两页历史书：在前一页上，我们能看见充满激情的东德人豪情万丈地把倒塌的墙踩在脚下，我们能听到Pink Floyd的怒吼；在后一页上，同样的东德人，面临着大规模的失业、残酷的竞争、生存的压力，他们的梦想在现实面前不堪一击，激情消逝了，取而代之的是对曾经田园诗般旧时光的追忆。
在刘瑜的文中，所谓“用脚投票”，简单来说，就是人民群众自会用双脚的选择和去向对各种制度的优劣与否作出判断。这一点，在二战后的德国，在一分为二的柏林，被以最显著最激烈的方式表现了出来：十数年间，东德人纷纷出逃到西柏林，他们冒着生命危险，只为追求梦想的民主自由和更美好的生活。后来，柏林墙终于在世界奇特而剧烈动荡的1989年，以一道错误指令的方式戏剧化地倒塌了。这个事件变成了冷战结束的标志，也变成了民主自由终于战胜独裁暴政的标志。
可是Fulbrook的研究，却恰恰是以这个胜利做原点，向后追溯，并用人类学的方法，对不同代际的前东德人做调查。结果显示，20年代出生的老人和70/80年代的年青人在德国统一的进程中都受损不大，后者更是享受到了前所未有的好机会。但50年代那批人则是最大的受害者。如果用发展的眼光来看，似乎这些失落的原东德人的抱怨并不足以代表历史进程的主流。毕竟，任何改变的过程都是痛苦的，局部的牺牲也是必须的。只是，对于这次社会试验，毫无疑问，50年代的那批东德人被牺牲了。他们是促成柏林墙倒塌的中坚力量，可是在其后的社会发展中他们也成为最尴尬的人群，他们的年龄已不适合接受再教育，可是退休又为时太早，于是只能在这个夹缝中艰难地求生。
Fulbrook马上要出一本书《Living Through Dictatoraships》，此书就是从一战一直写到90年德国的统一。这本书并不是单一的侧重描述人们如何被动地在独裁统治下生存，而是写人们在求生的同时，如何与政治结构博弈并相互塑造的过程。看过电影《浪潮》的人应该更能理解这种感觉。